“UK Inflation Plunge: What It Means for Interest Rates, Budget, and Economy

The unexpected inflation in the UK creates flexibility for reduced rates and a less difficult budget.

Inflation

UK Inflation Plunge : When deciding whether to lower interest rates next month, the Bank of England appears to have all the information it needs from last month’s dramatic decline in the headline inflation statistic to 1.7%.

The rate of price increase has fallen from 2.2% in August to significantly below the central bank’s 2% objective, returning to levels last observed in early 2021, long before the Russian invasion of Ukraine caused oil prices to skyrocket.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) can predict lower departmental spending when inflation is lower. For example, the working-age benefit increase in April of next year will be determined by the inflation rate in September, saving billions of dollars on the welfare tab.

Now that the Bank is projected to lower borrowing prices more quickly, the OBR is also expected to lower its forecast for the cost of financing government debt, which skyrocketed to over £100 billion in the 2023–24 fiscal year, or about 10% of total spending.

Inflation

It serves as an example of the potential impact of reduced inflation. The chancellor will still need to raise taxes significantly, but this might now be framed in a more positive story about the UK than many economists or perhaps the Treasury had previously considered.

The average price of petrol dropped by 5.5 cents per liter between August and September 2024, to 136.8p, according to the Office for National Statistics.

The Scottish visa is not being considered by the UK government to draw in immigration.

Scottish visa

A Scottish immigration visa system to help draw in foreign workers north of the border is not being considered by the UK government.

The SNP is trying to get the law changed so that Holyrood can create such a program.

Scottish Labour MP John Grady stated that Sir Keir Starmer’s government was “absolutely determined” to bring “talented people” to Scotland after the matter was brought up during a debate in Westminster on Tuesday.

Concerned about the workers’

On Thursday, SNP MP Stephen Gethins will present a bill that would modify the Scotland Act 1998 to allow the Scottish government to establish a Scottish visa. Holyrood will be able to “address the Brexit-born staff shortages that have caused pain,” he said. 

One System of Immigration

Jackie Baillie, the deputy leader of Scottish Labour, told the Herald on Sunday that her party would consider methods to “incentivize” UK migrants to reside in Scotland in the days before the July referendum.

The question of whether Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar would press the prime minister for a separate immigration system north of the border was posed to him a few days after the election.

Scottish Labour promised in its general election manifesto to remove “long-term reliance on overseas workers in some parts of the economy,” reform the UK migration advisory committee, and make sure that skills and migration policies “work for every part of the UK.”

The ‘overwhelming’ need in Gaza, Lebanon, and the wider Middle East is being addressed by UK charities through a funding plea.

UK charities

The Disasters Emergency Committee (DEC), which is made up of charities, is urgently collecting money for the millions of people in the area who have fled their homes in search of safety and need food, water, shelter, and medical attention.

According to the government, the first £10 million in public donations would be matched.

Numerous people have experienced repeated displacement and are without a place to call home. Food and healthcare are now in short supply, and families must make difficult decisions to survive.

Millions of people depend on the life-saving food, water, shelter, and medication that DEC member charities are currently delivering in Gaza, Lebanon, and the West Bank.

 

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