Canada’s Rising Unemployment Rate Triggers Loonie Depreciation and Sparks Rate Cut Speculations

An Unexpected Increase in the Unemployment Rate further Depreciates the Canadian dollar.

Unemployment .

Statistics Canada reports that November saw an unexpected 6.8% increase in unemployment, which has caused the loonie to fall to just below its lowest point of the year. The jobless rate is currently at its highest point since January 2017, according to Statistics Canada. The majority of the 51,000 new jobs created by the economy in November were full-time positions. The unemployment rate, however, increased by 0.3 percentage points as more people sought jobs. Professional, scientific, and technological services (up 17,000), construction (up 18,000), and wholesale and retail commerce (up 39,000) all had increases in employment.

Although there was little change in total hours worked across Canada in November, they were 1.9% higher than a year earlier.

According to Statistics Canada, employees’ average hourly salaries rose 4.1% to $35.68 in November compared to the same month last year. On December 11, the Bank of Canada will make its next interest rate decision. At the central bank’s final meeting of the year, the markets are now pricing in a 25 basis point rate increase.

Financial markets are now placing more bets on a half-percentage-point rate decrease after the data release, despite the job report’s conflicting specifics. After the job data, BMO revised its estimate for a half-point drop in the Bank of Canada’s policy interest rate instead of a quarter-percentage-point cut. 

The key rate set by the central bank is now 3.75 percent. As economic growth remained modest and inflation returned to its two percent target, the Bank of Canada reduced its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point in October.

Since April 2023, Canada’s unemployment rate has increased by 1.7 percentage points, continuing its upward trajectory. That meant lengthier stretches of unemployment for Canadians without jobs. 

According to the job report, 46.3 percent of Canadians without jobs in November had either never worked or had not worked in the previous year, which is an increase from 39.5 percent a year earlier. Wage growth, which has held up well despite the poor economic growth, also slowed in November.

Big BoC Rate Decrease.

based on data from Statistics Canada that was made public on Friday, increasing the likelihood of a massive interest rate increase the following week. Except for the COVID-19 epidemic, the jobless rate has increased by 1.7 percentage points since April of last year and is currently at its highest position since January 2017. 

According to Reuters, markets raised their odds of a 50 basis point rate decrease by the Bank of Canada on Friday from 55% before the release of the report to 68%. Priced in is a 25 basis point cut. In November, the labor force expanded by 137,800, more than doubling the number of new jobs created.

In November, there were 87,000 more people without jobs, whether they were looking for work or were temporarily laid off. According to the statistical bureau, there are 1.5 million unemployed people, a 22.2% increase from the previous year.

The increase in full-time employment was the primary driver of job growth, which was twice as much as experts had predicted. 

The opinions of certain economists on 25 versus 50 basis points Before the Bank of Canada’s final rate decision of the year on December 11, the November jobs data is the final report. Although most analysts anticipate that the central bank will lower its benchmark interest rate for the seventh consecutive year, they disagree as to whether rates would drop by 25 or 50 basis points. 

What is meant by unemployment?

Unemployment

Unemployment is the state in which a person actively looks for work but is not successful. One of the most important indicators of the health of the economy is supposed to be this. The most popular technique for figuring out a nation’s unemployment rate is the unemployment rate. This can be calculated by simply dividing the number of unemployed individuals by the total population that is part of a country’s workforce.

Among the several causes of unemployment are: 

  1. A shortage of competent employment. The rates of job availability are also evolving in tandem with the times. As a result of AI, companies are now seeking increasingly specialized talents.
  2. Absence of in-demand abilities.
  3. Lack of employability. There must be more companies and employers to meet the demand for more jobs.

What steps may be implemented to reduce unemployment?

By creating more jobs, unemployment can be reduced. Actions can be made to incentivize companies to increase their workforce, pay them more, and foster expansion. More effort and a better long-term solution are needed for structural employment. 

Lowering the structural employment rate requires changes starting at the base level. Both education and skill training are changes in the same class. Increased support for various industries can contribute to job growth and the advancement of the economy’s underdeveloped sectors.

 

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