How the battle in Ukraine might be impacted by long-range missiles hitting Russia

According to US officials, President Biden has authorized Ukraine to launch an attack deep into Russia using long-range missiles provided by Washington. For fear of escalating the conflict, Washington has previously prohibited such operations using US-made ATACMS missiles. The significant policy move occurred two months before President Joe Biden ceded office to Donald Trump, whose victory has sparked concerns about how the US will continue to help Kyiv.

Why has Ukraine been permitted to use long-range missiles within Russia by the United States?

For almost a year, Ukraine has been employing ATACMS against Russian targets in seized Ukrainian territory. In the area near the Kursk border, American weapons and equipment are already being employed inside Russia. 

Ukraine had maintained that it would be like asking for a hand tied behind its back to fight if it were prohibited from using such weapons within Russia. The recent arrival of North Korean troops to back Russia in the Kursk region—which Ukraine has controlled since August—is said to be the reason for the strategy shift.

Concerns over the future of US assistance for Ukraine are also being raised by Donald Trump’s impending return to the White House, and President Biden seems eager to lend his full support in the limited time he has left in office.

 It is believed that bolstering Ukraine’s military might give it more negotiating power in any future peace negotiations.

ATACMS: What is it?

The range of the Army Tactical Missile System, a surface-to-surface ballistic missile that can strike targets up to 300 kilometers (186 miles), is what makes it so crucial for Ukraine. Fueled by solid rocket propellant, 

ATACMS (pronounced “attack-’ems”) travel on a ballistic trajectory through the atmosphere before returning at a high angle and speed making them difficult to intercept. The second type is a single warhead, a high explosive variation weighing 225 kg that is intended to destroy larger structures and fortified infrastructure.

ATACMS has existed for many years. The Gulf War in 1991 was the first time they were utilized. The next-generation Precision Strike Missile, a quicker, more compact weapon with a 500-kilometer range, is taking its place in the US Army’s arsenal. No indication has been made that Ukraine will receive these.

How will the battlefield be affected by the missiles?

Now, Ukraine will have the ability to attack targets inside Russia, perhaps initially in the Kursk area, where Ukrainian forces control more than 1,000 square kilometers. Officials from the US and Ukraine anticipate a counteroffensive by North Korean and Russian forces to retake Kursk.

It’s unlikely that the missile supply will be sufficient to change the course of the conflict. 

In preparation for such a decision, Russian military hardware, including jets, has already been transferred to airfields located farther within Russia. Additionally, Ukraine may benefit from the armaments at a time when morale is low and Russian troops have been gaining ground in the country’s east. 

Another consequence of the US authorization is that it may allow the UK and France to allow Ukraine to use Storm Shadow missiles within Russia. The American ATACMS and the French-British Storm Shadow are both long-range cruise missiles with comparable capabilities.

How is Donald Trump going to respond?

Only two months remain till Donald Trump takes the White House again. Although some of his closest associates have publicly criticized the program, President-elect Trump has not yet stated whether he would continue it. Many of Trump’s top officials, including JD Vance, the vice president-elect, believe that the United States should stop giving Ukraine military assistance. 

However, some members of the incoming Trump administration disagree. According to National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, the United States might push Russia to engage in negotiations by speeding up the delivery of arms to Ukraine. It’s unknown which direction the president-elect will go. However, many in Ukraine, especially ATACMS, are afraid he will stop delivering weaponry.